Management Report
3. Sales and Earnings Forecast
The following forecasts for 2011 are based on the business performance described in this report, taking into account the potential risks and opportunities. The sales and earnings forecast for 2012 is given in Chapter 11.4
“Sales and Earnings Forecast” of the Annual Report 2010.
Bayer Group
We confirm the full-year sales and earnings forecast as raised in April.
For 2011 we continue to target a currency- and portfolio-adjusted sales increase of between 5% and 7%. This corresponds to Group sales of between €36 billion and €37 billion. This guidance is based on the exchange rates prevailing at the end of the third quarter of 2011.
We still plan to increase EBITDA before special items to more than €7.5 billion. As before, core earnings per share (calculated as explained in Chapter 7
“Core Earnings Per Share”) are expected to improve by about 15%. We continue to plan special charges of about €0.5 billion in EBITDA for ongoing restructuring programs.
HealthCare
In 2011 HealthCare plans to increase sales by a low-single-digit percentage (previously: low- to mid-single-digit percentage) after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. We now expect EBITDA before special items to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage to at least €4.6 billion (previously: a small improvement), mainly in light of the savings from the efficiency programs.
In the Pharmaceuticals segment, we continue to believe that sales will not yet resume growing with the market in 2011. We expect virtually unchanged or only slightly higher sales (previously: low- to mid-single- digit percentage increase) after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. Particularly in view of our structural measures, we expect to increase EBITDA before special items by about 5%, improving the EBITDA margin before special items to about 30% (previously: raise the EBITDA margin before special items).
In the Consumer Health segment, we continue to anticipate above-market growth in sales after adjusting for currency and portfolio effects. As before, we expect sales and EBITDA before special items to increase by mid-single-digit percentages.
CropScience
The CropScience business has continued to trend positively. As previously communicated, we aim to improve sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis in 2011. In light of the good business performance so far, we plan to expand EBITDA before special items by more than (previously: about) 20% compared to the weak prior year.
MaterialScience
At MaterialScience we anticipate higher fourth-quarter sales but lower EBITDA before special items than in the same period of 2010 in view of continued increases in raw material and energy costs. As a result, we expect to raise full-year sales by a high-single-digit percentage on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis, posting slightly lower EBITDA before special items in the region of €1.3 billion (previously: grow EBITDA before special items at a higher rate than sales).